Öcalan calls for PKK dissolution, but Turkey may refuse to release him

~ Blade Runner ~

In a historic declaration, the imprisoned founder of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Abdullah Öcalan, has called for the organisation’s disarmament and dissolution. In response, PKK leaders declared an immediate ceasefire, framing it as the start of a “new historic process”. While they conditioned full dissolution on Öcalan’s release so that he can personally oversee the process, the Turkish government has long demanded the PKK’s unilateral disarmament while rejecting previous peace overtures.

If Turkey does release Öcalan, it would mark the most significant shift in the Kurdish struggle in four decades and constitute a major step toward ending a conflict that has claimed over 40,000 lives.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has signalled that Öcalan’s latest call will not lead to new negotiations, but instead reinforces Ankara’s demand for the PKK’s unconditional dissolution. At the same time, the Turkish government has framed the ceasefire declarations as a historic opportunity for peace, pursuing domestic stability as part of its bid for greater regional influence. Notably, a potential constitutional amendment requiring Kurdish political support has been suggested as a mechanism to extend Erdoğan’s rule beyond current term limits.

Last October, reports suggested that Öcalan could be granted parole if the group agreed to disband. In December diplomatic efforts intensified, including a proposal for Öcalan’s release alongside a $14 billion development plan for Kurdish regions.

Multipolar politics

The PKK represents only one facet of Kurdish resistance, which spans multiple countries and includes diverse political and social struggles. Within the PKK, Öcalan’s influence has waned as military leaders gained greater autonomy, and some factions reject disarmament without political guarantees. Others argue that a declaration from prison cannot bind the organisation’s fighters spread across multiple countries.

In Syrian Kurdistan, the SDF, primarily composed of the People’s Protection Units (YPG/YPJ)—which share ideological roots with the PKK—has been a crucial ally of the U.S. in combating ISIS in Syria. Areas controlled by the SDF have been among the safest for women, ethnic minorities, and religious groups. However, the SDF’s increasing reliance on U.S. support has compromised the social revolutionary aspects of the Rojava project. The SDF has welcomed the call for disarmament as a step toward peace, but Turkish officials have called for the dissolution of all PKK-linked groups in Syria and Iraq, including the YPG/YPJ and the Democratic Union Party (PYD).

Meanwhile, Rojava’s administration faces existential threats from Turkish-backed militias and ongoing airstrikes targeting critical infrastructure, forcing it to choose between accepting integration into a new Syrian state under Islamist rule or facing annihilation under Turkish bombardment. Turkey’s strategy appears aimed at undermining Kurdish self-governance by destroying essential resources such as water supplies and power plants.

Öcalan previously called for disarmament in 2013 during peace talks with the Turkish government, leading to a ceasefire that lasted until July 2015. However, its collapse resulted in some of the deadliest fighting of the conflict, with renewed hostilities across Turkey, northern Iraq, and Syria.

Unlike that earlier attempt, this latest call—announced on the 26th anniversary of Öcalan’s capture—carries broader implications for the shifting balance of power in the Middle East. It remains uncertain, however, whether the PKK’s disarmament could bring meaningful political self-determination for the Kurds—or simply mark another chapter in Turkey’s ongoing campaign against Kurdish existence.