At the dawn of 21st century’s second quarter, borders are again being redrawn in both Syria and Gaza, with regional powers strategically manoeuvring to maximise their geopolitical control in a rapidly shifting global order

~ Blade Runner ~

The weakened Assad regime collapsed in a matter of a days, and what initially raised cautious optimism among Syria’s diverse communities quickly gave way to fears of the revamped jihadist forces of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a rebranded version of Al-Qaeda in Syria, currently managing the government transition. Meanwhile, the Kurdish revolutionary forces are fighting on multiple fronts to preserve autonomy and human dignity, with Rojava’s future intertwined with the future of Syria and hanging by a thread.

With Iran and Russia facing their own challenges, and with uncertainty surrounding the geo-strategic priorities of the new US administration, the Turkish regime has positioned itself as the main beneficiary in the shifting power dynamics in the region. According to reports from anarchist fighters in Rojava, the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) consists of gangs that operate through looting, robbing, and kidnapping. Their campaigns in northern Syria against the areas controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) included attacks on power stations and other vital infrastructure. After taking control of Manbij, the SNA is now threatening to cross the Euphrates River and attack Kobane, one of Rojava’s key centres in northern Syria that symbolises its successful resistance against the Islamic State (ISIS).

Negotiations have been ongoing, often with the US acting as an intermediary, although direct talks between the SDF and the SNA have not been widely reported. The future of Syria is under discussion, with the HTS proposing a centralised authoritarian regime not too dissimilar to the Assad’s rule. Meanwhile, the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC), the political wing of the SDF, advocates for a confederal democratic model and decentralised governance that empowers diverse communities—Kurds, Armenians, Assyrians, Druze, and others.

Turkey’s neo-Ottoman ambitions

The US administration finds itself in a messy diplomatic situation. It must continue to support the SDF in their fight against ISIS while simultaneously leaving the Rojava communities vulnerable to offensives backed by Turkey, its NATO ally, which has the second-largest military force in the alliance. At the same time, US forces remain stationed in Kobane, serving as a red line that Turkey’s offensive should not cross. The SDF holds the leverage of retaining tens of thousands of dedicated ISIS fighters and their families in the vast refugee camp of Al-Hol, and they appear to be the only force in the region capable of containing the threat posed by the Islamic State.

What the Turkish administration will do next is uncertain. Erdogan’s regime has not concealed its neo-Ottoman ambitions, asserting that Aleppo is “Turkish” and suggesting that Turkey’s territorial claims extend beyond internationally recognised borders. The Turkish state’s latest aggression aims to dismantle Rojava’s self-governance and identity in North-Eastern Syria. This offensive may proceed despite US deterrence, potentially becoming one of the most brutal wars in the area since the days of ISIS.

The Kurds have historically faced oppression from all states within whose borders they have lived. Unlike other minorities such as Armenian and Assyrian Christians, which the Assad regime allowed to preserve their languages, Kurds were forced to run schools in Arabic. The Kurdish political organisation that has been fighting for Kurdish autonomy within Turkey, the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), has been designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US, the EU, and NATO allies. This includes the UK, which raided the Kurdish Community Centre in North London on November the 27th, the 46th anniversary of the PKK’s founding.

Turkey’s expansionism targeting the Kurds and other minorities echoes the atrocities of Ottoman-era ethnic cleansing. The Armenian genocide was carried out by the Ottoman Empire primarily between 1915 and 1916, and resulted in the systematic extermination of up to 1.5 million Armenians. The mass killings were carried out through death marches into the Syrian desert, resulting in widespread starvation, disease, executions, and the destruction of Armenian cultural and religious heritage. This played a key role in the ethnic and demographic changes that facilitated the emergence of modern Turkey in 1923.

In the autumn of 2023, following Azerbaijan’s military offensive supported by the Turkish government, nearly 120,000 Armenians were forcibly displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh, exacerbating the region’s long-standing ethnic conflicts. Entire communities were displaced and Armenian cultural heritage sites were destroyed, while the international community turned a blind eye. Netanyahu’s government in Israel was no doubt paying attention, and Erdogan must also be tempted to “cleanse” Rojava of Kurds if he believes the entire world will empower him to do so.

Gaza: ethnic cleansing rolls on

The relentless devastation in Gaza is now entering its second year. Simultaneously, the Israeli regime took advantage of the power vacuum in Syria, conducting extensive bombardments of Assad’s military infrastructure to ensure that the new administration would not pose a threat to the settler state. At the same time, Israeli forces advanced deeper into Syrian territories, aiming to sever Hezbollah’s key supply route between Lebanon and Syria. Netanyahu’s declaration that “the Golan Heights will remain forever under Israeli sovereignty” reflects his regime’s determination to solidify control over this contested region, which was seized in 1967 and annexed in 1981. The Golan Heights serves as a vital strategic buffer and intelligence hub, undermining Iranian and Hezbollah influence.

Israeli airstrikes in Yemen right after Christmas, backed by the US and UK, have targeted Houthi-controlled infrastructure, including ports and airports, as part of a broader campaign to cripple the military power of what could be the last significant player in the Iran-aligned axis. The strikes narrowly missed the head of the World Health Organisation and further escalated the already dire humanitarian crisis in Yemen. Netanyahu has declared that the Houthis “will meet the same fate as Hamas and Hezbollah”, signalling Israel’s intent to eliminate all Iran-aligned opposition across the region.

The Houthis, officially known as Ansar Allah, emerged in the 1990s from Yemen’s Zaidi Shia minority, opposing Saudi and US influence and advocating for their community’s rights. Their resistance escalated after the Yemeni government assassinated their leader in 2004. The Arab Spring of 2011 boosted their prominence, leading to their seizure of Yemen’s capital, Sana’a, in 2014, where they established a de facto government. With Iranian support, they have fought against Saudi- and US-backed forces, gaining political stature through solidarity with Palestinian resistance, akin to Hezbollah’s role in Lebanon.

A war waged on the bodies of the weak

The mindset governing these war zones is rooted in relentless patriarchal domination, prioritising capital and power over freedom, diversity and communal life. The proxy wars in the Middle East are eroding the social fabric and historical memory, destroying the futures of communities and perpetuating division, aggression, and hopelessness.

Numerous cultures and nations predating modernity, such as the Armenians, Palestinians, and Kurds, who have dared to fight for autonomy and self-governance, have suffered within the borders of dominant states. The global hegemonic design for identities that do not align with the dominating norm culminates in either assimilation or displacement and elimination.

According to the Jineolojî Academy, thousands of women and children are reported to have been raped during the war in Syria and 353,900 people have lost their lives since 2018, with 56,900 more missing or presumed dead. 40% of the victims are women and children. Half of Syrian refugees are women fleeing to Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, where they may be forced into prostitution or sold into marriage.

Moreover, other sources attest that non-binary and gender non-conforming individuals in Syria often face significant social stigma, discrimination, and violence. Syrian law provides no protection from discrimination or aggression based on sexual orientation or gender identity, creating an environment of impunity.

The international community at best sheds crocodile tears, but is largely silent in the face of ongoing state-led ethnic cleansing and genocide. As these atrocities unfold, grassroots networks and movements that fight for social liberation and autonomy must act in solidarity and prepare for the worst.