While heavy repression will prevent any mass protests, resistance from below continues

~ Nikita Ivansky ~

On Sunday 26 January Alexander Lukashenko will be re-elected for his seventh term as president; in contrast to the 2020 elections, which became a culmination of political mobilisation for hundreds of thousands of Belarusians, this round of re-elections is not expected to bring protests on the streets. This is mostly connected with political terror against anyone who opposes Lukashenko and his regime. 

Until 2020, Belarus had a fairly vibrant anarchist movement that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. However, anarchists were among the top targets for the political police and the KGB. Currently there are over 25 anarchists and antifascists in Belarusian prisons, serving up to 20 years for various acts of resistance. Supporting imprisoned comrades, their families and their struggle inside the prisons  is one of the tasks of the international anarchist movement. 

In recent years, thousands of people have been prosecuted on various charges, from insulting the president or being part of an extremist organisation to terrorist acts. These days, people who carry out any kind of sabotage or direct action against the regime can easily be prosecuted for terrorism.

Nevertheless, Lukashenko still feels insecure about these elections, and various branches of the repression apparatus have been preparing for months. From short-term arrests of known opposition activists to semi-military training of riot police, announced on all state media, there is an attempt to scare people away from any actions during and immediately after the elections. The government is doing everything it can to demonstrate the country’s “political stability” to its sponsors in the Kremlin. Any serious instability in Belarus could lead to attempts by Putin to replace Lukashenko, with whom he has very cold relations.

Belarus was not always part of the so-called “Russian world”. For years, Lukashenko tried to navigate between Moscow and Brussels in order to maintain his power and not become completely dependent on either side. However, brutal acts of repression, including the killings of protesters in 2020, as well as serious international scandals—all led to the dictator’s isolation and his full commitment to Putin, who saved the Belarusian economy from collapse several times. Despite Lukashenko’s attempts to bring Chinese interests into the region, the Belarusian state remains Moscow’s puppet.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 also helped stabilise the Lukashenko dictatorship. Belarus became an important part of the Russian war machine even without directly sending troops (unlike North Korea). Putin and his allies see more benefit in an “independent” Belarus that can be used, among other things, to evade Western sanctions against Russia. While Lukashenko in recent years has continued to threaten neighbouring countries with possible military operations “if necessary”, only Russia will decide where, when and what for the Belarusian military will be delployed.

Despite the crushing repression of any opposition to the regime, the Belarusian people continue to resist in various forms. They are not waiting for Lukashenko to suddenly leave. Constant arrests and prosecutions for direct action show that despite the lack of organised mass protests, the people are still ready to fight back against Lukashenko and his masters in Moscow, even in times of war and state terror.