Drought and heatwave in southern Europe, rotten summer in northern France, and deluge in central Europe as climate change takes its toll

~ from Contre Attacque ~

Accumulations of 150mm of rain in a few hours over central Europe represent more than 3 months of average precipitation in Paris. That’s 150 litres per square meter, or the equivalent of a bathtub, poured on an area as large as half of France. A deluge that the ground cannot absorb.

In some areas, more than 300 millimetres of water fell in three days, particularly in Austria, Poland and the Czech Republic. The damage was enormous: the storm nicknamed ‘Boris’ killed at least 18 people, drove thousands of people from their homes, left hundreds of thousands of homes without electricity, cut off roads, tore up bridges and railway lines… A state of natural disaster was declared in all the countries concerned.

How can we explain this storm when summer is officially not over yet? Central Europe is particularly exposed to heavy rains at this time of year, and has already suffered floods in the past. This time, the episode is simply stronger than usual.

As you have noticed, it has been particularly cool in France and England for several days: a polar air mass has descended on Western Europe. At the same time, the Mediterranean is abnormally warm, the water has exceeded 30°C in recent weeks, which releases enormous quantities of water vapor and humid and warm air masses. The meeting of these two masses, cold coming down from the north and warm and humid coming up from the south, took place at the level of central Europe and the relief, causing this meteorological shock which gave birth to storm Boris.

While this phenomenon is therefore not unexpected, it is linked to climate change. The Mediterranean has suffered a sort of marine heatwave and tropical sea temperatures this summer, which have upset local balances. The Mediterranean rim is one of the areas most affected by rising temperatures. Scientific estimates fear up to +7°C in this area within 80 years. This implies a near-desertification of part of the Mediterranean shores, and a strong impact on marine species. In recent weeks, while the north of France has been experiencing a rotten summer, Spain has also experienced three heatwaves, as have Italy and Greece, with peaks of 43°C and fires.

Global warming is not uniform. When we talk about +1.5°C, this does not mean an identical increase everywhere on the planet. And it does not necessarily mean more sun and drought at the same time and in all countries. In fact, we are entering the unknown: this causes an increase in extreme and difficult to predict phenomena, which can be anything from the absence of rain to floods. As we can see, Catalonia is seriously lacking rain while Central Europe is under water. Some areas could be uninhabitable in the summer, but it is even possible that the Atlantic coasts of Western Europe will suddenly cool down, with the disruption of the sea currents that soften our ocean territories.

Thus, violent climatological episodes are likely to recur at more frequent intervals. According to a study published in Nature Communications, “Greenhouse gas emissions play a determining role in the occurrence of extreme precipitation”. They lead to a warming of the global temperature, which has the direct consequence of increasing the water vapour present in the air and therefore precipitation.

University of California hydro-climatology researcher Gavin Madakumbura explained in 2021: “The fact that global warming leads to more violent precipitation may seem counterintuitive. Yet climate change can not only make places drier, but also intensify precipitation”. With Boris, we are there.

Top photo: Flooding in Kłodzko, Poland. Photo: Jacek Halicki, CC BY-SA 4.0